Although there were no huge positive development leaps in the operating environment, there were still signs of renewed optimism in the residential property market. During the third quarter, we signed 32 contracts under the law of obligation (sales contract; 2024 Q2: 47; 2023 Q3: 21) and during the first 9 months of the year, we signed a total of 95 sales contracts (2023: 40). Most of the new sales during the quarter came from the Regati development which is under construction and also the sales of previously completed apartments of Luuslangi development. Liven’s market share of new sales in Tallinn and the surrounding area is estimated to have been around 10% in the first 9 months of 2024, up from the 6-7% estimate of the previous two years.
The weekly sales ratio, which represents the number of homes going out of supply under sales contract or paid reservations, improved compared to the previous quarters, averaging 1.5% over the period and above 2.0% in October. The long-term average is considered to be 1.5-2.0%.
During the third quarter, we handed over a total of 27 new homes in developments completed under the real right contract (2024 Q2: 29; 2023 Q3: 15). Of these, 11 in the phase II of the Iseära development, 10 were in phase I of the Luuslangi development, 3 in phase II of the Uus-Meremaa development, and 3 from the Magdaleena development. In the same order, the projects also had an impact on the financial results of the third quarter. Revenue for the quarter was EUR 7,057 thousand (2024 Q2: EUR 8,546 thousand; 2023 Q3: EUR 4,499 thousand) and net profit for the period was EUR 342 thousand (2024 Q2: EUR 443 thousand; 2023 Q3: EUR -578 thousand).
In the first nine months of the year, we have delivered a total of 68 new homes (2023: 74), generated sales revenue of EUR 19,101 thousand (2023: EUR 19,052 thousand) and a net profit of EUR 635 thousand (2023: EUR -1,470 thousand).
Assets increased by EUR 303 thousand during the quarter to EUR 73,104 thousand at the end of the period. During the quarter, we received new bank loans of EUR 5,245 thousand to finance the construction of projects, but together with home deliveries, we repaid EUR 4,515 thousand of earlier construction loans. Total borrowings with other loans increased by EUR 643 thousand to EUR 44,380 thousand during the quarter. In connection with loan repayments, short-term loan commitments decreased by EUR 315 thousand to EUR 9,738 thousand during the quarter.
The balance of cash and cash equivalents decreased by EUR 3,723 during the quarter to EUR 4,807 at the end of the quarter mainly related to the acquisition of a new property.
Consolidated statement of financial position
| (in thousands of euros) | 30.09.2024 | 31.12.2023 | 30.09.2023 |
| Current assets | |||
| Cash and cash equivalents | 4,807 | 3,721 | 2,773 |
| Trade and other receivables | 81 | 1,326 | 90 |
| Prepayments | 715 | 321 | 1,127 |
| Inventories | 65,138 | 62,112 | 63,656 |
| Total current assets | 70,741 | 67,480 | 67,646 |
| Non-current assets | |||
| Prepayments | 44 | 0 | 0 |
| Investment property | 1,064 | 0 | 0 |
| Property, plant and equipment | 432 | 388 | 234 |
| Intangible assets | 386 | 296 | 297 |
| Right-of-use assets | 437 | 395 | 0 |
| Total non-current assets | 2,363 | 1,079 | 531 |
| TOTAL ASSETS | 73,104 | 68,559 | 68,177 |
| Current liabilities | |||
| Borrowings | 9,738 | 17,106 | 14,542 |
| Trade and other payables | 8,838 | 9,121 | 7,629 |
| Provisions | 528 | 2,384 | 0 |
| Total current liabilities | 19,104 | 28,611 | 22,171 |
| Non-current liabilities | |||
| Borrowings | 34,642 | 21,328 | 30,099 |
| Trade and other payables | 1,032 | 469 | 80 |
| Provisions | 54 | 29 | 4 |
| Total non-current liabilities | 35,728 | 21,826 | 30,183 |
| Total liabilities | 54,832 | 50,437 | 52,354 |
| Equity | |||
| Share capital | 1,190 | 1,183 | 1,183 |
| Share premium | 9,540 | 9,339 | 9,250 |
| Share option reserve | 321 | 363 | 404 |
| Own (treasury) shares | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Statutory capital reserve | 118 | 115 | 115 |
| Retained earnings (prior periods) | 6,468 | 6,347 | 6,342 |
| Profit for the year | 635 | 775 | -1,470 |
| Total equity attributable to owners of the parent | 18,272 | 18,122 | 15,823 |
| Total equity | 18,272 | 18,122 | 15,823 |
| TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY | 73,104 | 68,559 | 68,177 |
Consolidated statement of comprehensive income
| (in thousands of euros) | 2024 Q3 | 2023 Q3 | 2024 9 months | 2023 9 months | |
| Revenue | 7,057 | 4,499 | 19,101 | 19,052 | |
| Cost of sales | -5,987 | -4,499 | -15,951 | -18,814 | |
| Gross profit | 1,070 | 0 | 3,150 | 238 | |
| Distribution costs | -327 | -283 | -978 | -689 | |
| Administrative expenses | -352 | -316 | -993 | -934 | |
| Other operating income | 21 | 30 | 33 | 40 | |
| Other operating expenses | -10 | -5 | -17 | -9 | |
| Operating profit | 403 | -574 | 1,195 | -1,354 | |
| Finance income | 31 | 6 | 57 | 9 | |
| Finance costs | -92 | -10 | -448 | -21 | |
| Total finance income and finance costs | -61 | -4 | -391 | -12 | |
| Profit before tax | 342 | -578 | 804 | -1,366 | |
| Income tax expense | 0 | 0 | -169 | -104 | |
| Net profit for the year | 342 | -578 | 635 | -1,470 | |
| Attributable to owners of the parent | 342 | -578 | 635 | -1,470 | |
| Comprehensive income for the year | 342 | -578 | 635 | -1,470 | |
| Attributable to owners of the parent | 342 | -578 | 635 | -1,470 | |
| Basic profit/loss per share | 0.029 | -0.049 | 0.054 | -0.125 | |
| Diluted profit/loss per share | 0.028 | -0.048 | 0.052 | -0.122 | |
The customer satisfaction feedback rating for the last 12 months, collected at different stages of the customer journey, increased to 8.4 out of 10 by the end of third quarter (Q2 2024: 8.0; Q3 2023: 8.9). The improvement in the feedback rating reflects the focus on increasing the number of customer feedback ratings and improving performance in 2024.
Key events in development projects
At the beginning of the quarter, we started the construction of the last five terraced houses of Phase II of the Iseära project. At the end of the quarter, we started the pre-sales of the Jalami 6 apartment building in Luuslangi Phase II. On 30 October, planning permission was issued for a 30-apartment apartment building at Virmalise 3.
Acquisition of Kalda 5 property
During the quarter, we acquired a property at Kalda 5 / Käokõrva 1-12 in Nõmme, Tallinn. The total value of the transaction was EUR 2.5 million, and we used the funds raised by the green bonds in spring 2024 to acquire the property.
According to the existing detailed plan and the issued building permit, it is possible to build 12 three-storey residential buildings with a total of 72 apartments and a saleable area of approximately 6,000 m2 on the property. We plan to sell and build the development in several phases and start the sale in 2025.
Increase of share capital in connection with employee share option schemes
During the quarter, the Board of Directors of Liven AS decided to increase the share capital by EUR 14,575.80 from EUR 1,185,424.20 to EUR 1,200,000.00 by issuing 145,758 new ordinary shares with a nominal value of EUR 0.1 each, in accordance with the previous decision of the General Meeting of Shareholders. The shares were issued without a premium and were fully paid for by cash contributions.
The share capital increase and the issuance of new shares were carried out in order to comply with the terms and conditions of the stock option plan LEOP (“LEOP”) and the stock option plan LEOP 2024-2027 (“LEOP 2024-2027”). Of the new shares, 47,495 shares were issued directly to the beneficiaries of the LEOP options. 57,057 shares are intended to be used to fulfil the terms of the LEOP and 41, 206 shares to create a LEOP 2024-2027 option fund.
Significant developments in the economic environment in the period under review
The 6-month Euribor (Euribor), which peaked a year ago at 4.143%, has been falling throughout 2024. Compared to the second quarter of 2024, the Euribor fell significantly in the third quarter, reaching 3.11% at the end of the period (30.06.2024: 3.68%) and 2.89% after the reporting date.
At the Governing Council of the European Central Bank in October 2024, it was decided to cut the base rate by 25 basis points, as the assumption that annual inflation in the euro area would fall below 2% was met. This decision was in line with an earlier forecast by economic analysts.
The main presumption for lowering Euribor is declining inflation. In Estonia, annual consumer price inflation rate was 3.0% in the third quarter of 2024 (2024 Q2: 2.5%). According to Eesti Pank’s forecasts, the consumer basket as a whole will increase by 3.5% in 2024.
According to the latest data from Statistics Estonia, the estimated annual increase in average gross wages in the second quarter (8.1%) exceeded the increase in prices. Despite this, consumer confidence, which had remained low for a long time, remained weak in the latest quarter. Consumers are more likely to view the purchase of durable goods as a bargain in the next 12 months than they do now, leading to a general sentiment to continue to be on hold and to delay purchasing decisions. Based on the recent data from the Institute of Economic Research, the consumer confidence indicator has deteriorated further compared to the second quarter of 2024 and remains at a low level (October 2024: -37; average for the second quarter of 2024: -28).The October 2024 confidence indicator is comparable to two years ago, when consumer confidence reached its lowest level in recent history.
Despite the above, there were signs of activation of home buyers in the market. For example, according to the Land Statistical Office’s transaction statistics, the number of transactions of apartments (residental) in Tallinn increased by 12.3% compared to the previous quarter (Q3 2024: 2,141 transactions; Q2 2024: 1,906 transactions). However, activity has increased mainly in the aftermarket buy/sell transactions and sales of new developments have remained rather subdued.
Compared to the second quarter of 2024, the offer prices of new developments remained stable in the third quarter of 2024, showing an increase only of 0.3%. The number of transactions on the market decreased by 28% compared to the second quarter of 2024 (Q3 2024: 368 transactions; Q2 2024: 513 transactions), being also 8% below the sales performance in the third quarter of 2023 (404 transactions). Only 38 new offers were added, a similar level compared to the previous quarter.
Due to the completion of construction of several development projects in spring and summer 2024 and the modest sales volume, the stock of unsold ready-to-move-in apartments remained relatively high in the third quarter, reaching 931 apartments by the end of the quarter (Q2 2024: 933; Q3 2023: 640). Consequently, options for homebuyers and market competition remain high.
The average listing price per square metre of a new apartment in Tallinn was EUR 4,362 in Q3, showing an annual increase of 3.3%. On a quarterly comparison, listing prices have remained relatively unchanged, increased by only 0.3%.
Outlook for the future
Despite some recovery in the market during both the second and third quarters, the external environment’s impact on demand and sales will continue to be the main challenge in the last quarter of 2024 and in the years ahead. We expect a continuation of the gradual improvement in the external factors affecting the residential real estate sector, in particular the decline in interest rates and real wage growth. Provided that the demand holds up or increases we are ready to quickly bring new supply to the market.
This year and beyond will continue to be environmentally challenging and risky, including for all levels of the public sector. Despite positive developments, significant challenges remain in Tallinn’s planning procedures. We continue to expect several long-drawn-out procedures to reach a conclusion in 2024 or the first half of 2025. Planned tax rate increases and additional taxes will increase the sales prices of new developments in the coming years, reducing incomes and the availability of real estate.
In real estate development, results are achieved with a significant time lag and an increase in marketing expenses in the periods preceding the sales growth. The results for 2024 will reflects the conditions and decisions of 2022 and 2023, when construction work started on only a few projects and the cost base was heavily affected by high inflation. To meet our 20% return on equity target we need an annual revenue in excess of EUR 40 million.
Although the necessary capacity is available in the portfolio for the coming years, we can deliver a maximum of 110 residential and commercial properties in total this year. In the first nine months of the year, we delivered 68 homes, 62% of the total available. By the end of October, 65% of the total potential. In the first nine months, we achieved sales revenue of EUR 19.1 million, and we estimate that the potential sales proceeds from the remaining space in the portfolio to be sold and transferred during 2024 is EUR 13.9 million. This is unlikely to be fully realised in the final months of the year, but the unrealised portion will continue to underpin the results in subsequent periods.
With the decisions and actions undertaken in 2024, we will build on our economic performance in 2025 and 2026. Achieving good results will require improvements in external factors as well as internal efforts to reduce construction costs. Largely as a result of the developments of the Regati and Iseära projects, as well as unrealised sales potential in 2024, we expect a significant improvement in financial results in 2025 and 2026. There is sufficient capacity in the development portfolio for the next 3-4 years, but we continue to actively negotiate and consider acquisition alternatives to increase the development portfolio.
