Swedbank: Estonia’s updated 3Q GDP indicates a worse-than-expected outlook

01.12.2023
  • SwedbankIn Q3 2023, Estonia’s GDP dropped 3.9% y/y (non-adjusted) and 1.3% q/q (swda) in real terms, according to Statistics Estonia. In nominal terms, GDP growth slowed to only 1.2% y/y.
  • Statistics Estonia substantially revised down (by 1.5 pp) its 3Q GDP flash estimate of -2.5% y/y, that was published a month ago.
  • In real terms, Estonian GDP has contracted seven quarters in a row in quarter-on-quarter (swda) and five quarters in year-on year (non-adjusted) comparison.
  • GDP has declined 5.7% from the pre-recession peak (in 4Q 2021) and the first three quarters of 2023 have dropped 3.5% y/y in real terms.
  • The updated GDP calculation indicates considerably worse outlook for the Estonia’s GDP, at least in the short term, compared to the forecast that was based on the recent GDP flash estimate.
  • In the last Swedbank Economic Outlook we forecasted 2,5% GDP contraction in 2023 and 0,7% growth in 2024, but we expect to revise these figures down.

Full report

Seonduvad uudised

  • 30.08.2017 Swedbank: Tight labour market lifts wages
    Wage growth will remain relatively high as labour demand increases more than supply. Nevertheless, the gap between wage and productivity growth rates will narrow this year. The growth of the average gross wage accelerated in the second quarter (+6.8%         
  • 13.11.2020 Swedbank: Unemployment rate increased in the third quarter in Estonia
    The unemployment rate increased in the third quarter in Estonia and is expected to rise further during the winter months. According to Statistics Estonia, employment fell by 3.6% in the third quarter, over the year, mostly in the services’ sector,         
  • 15.11.2021 Swedbank: Labour shortages hamper growth in Estonia
    The crisis is receding in the labour market. The unemployment rate declined to 5.7% in the third quarter. The unemployment rate is still relatively high, but the lack of suitable labour is a growing concern. 40-50% of employers report labour         
  • 01.06.2023 Swedbank: Estonia: GPD fell for the fifth quarter in a row
    In Q1 2023, GDP contracted 3.2% y/y (non-adjusted) and 0.6% q/q (swda) in real terms. GDP contraction met our expectations. In nominal terms, Estonian economy expanded 9.3%, above the long-term average. Estonian economy has contracted five quarters i         

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