Despite the rollercoaster during the year 2020 caused by the global pandemic, housing remained affordable in all three Baltic capitals. After severely damaged market activity during the first wave of the pandemic, the end of the year brought a spectacular increase in transaction numbers in all Baltic capitals.
Signs of pent-up demand were observed in the housing markets in Tallinn, Riga, and Vilnius, and the increase in investment appetite likely served as an additional factor for the boost in transaction numbers. Housing affordability increased in all Baltic capitals at the end of the year. Interest rates declined – ensuring an increase in affordability despite price growth surpassing the average wage growth in Riga and Vilnius. In Tallinn, wage growth exceeded price growth, enhancing housing affordability even more.
High demand for housing is likely to persist in the Baltics this year, and low interest rates will support affordability in the future. Prices are expected to reflect the rising demand, and, while wage growth is to remain moderate in Tallinn and rather robust in Riga and Vilnius, apartment price growth might outpace wage growth, reducing housing affordability, especially in Tallinn. We will see large base effects in the housing statistics this year, especially in the second quarter, due to the pandemic-induced changes in 2020.
