Housing affordability improved in Tallinn and Vilnius, while remained nearly unchanged in Riga. The ECB cut its interest rates by 25 basis points in June; further cuts will continue supporting affordability. As expected, the ECB cut its interest rates in…
Estonian household consumption has been declining since the second half of 2022 and is still falling; however, real wages started to grow in the second half of 2023. Meanwhile, household confidence is at the level last seen during the Global…
In Q1 2024, GDP dropped 2.1% y/y in real terms and was slightly lower than in Q4 (swda), according to the flash estimate of Statistics Estonia. Thus, economic recession continued in Estonia in Q1, while the decline has slowed. Economic…
Inflation is heading down and getting closer to levels in line with inflation targets. Central banks’ policy rates are at peak levels, and the higher-for-longer mantra will soon be replaced with monetary easing. Nevertheless, monetary policy will remain restrictive in…
Manufacturing weakness is spilling over to the rest of the economy Core inflation finally starts dropping ECB hiking is done, cuts on the horizon In Europe, disappointing data continued pouring throughout the summer and into the fourth quarter. Manufacturing continued…
Housing affordability kept decreasing; housing became unaffordable in Vilnius Apartment sales were down, but prices were sticky The rapid increase in wages was insufficient to counter the negative impact of high interest rates and still-elevated prices. As a result, housing…
The average wage growth accelerated to 13.3% in the first quarter from 12.1% in the fourth quarter. Wage growth was rapid and broad-based despite difficult economic times. Wage growth accelerated due to a significant increase in public sector wages, especially…
In April, consumer prices increased by 13.5% compared to the same month last year and by 2.0% compared to the previous month. Compared to last month, prices rose quite a lot due to the end of government energy subsidies to…
The average gross wage growth accelerated to 9.2% in the fourth quarter of last year, reflecting a strong labour market, unaffected by a large decline in GDP volumes. Wage growth was vigorous and broad-based. The average wage rose the most…
In Q4 2022, GDP contracted 4.1% y/y (non-adjusted) and 1.6% q/q (swda) in real terms. Quarter-on-quarter GDP fell throughout 2022. In 2022, GDP fell 1.3% in real terms, but expanded 15.1% in nominal terms – the fastest result of the…
In January, annual inflation accelerated somewhat due to less generous energy support package from the government compared to one year ago and because of a larger share of the housing component in the consumer basket this year after the yearly…
In December, inflation was still rapid, but on a downward trend, in Estonia. Inflation decelerated to 17.6%, over the year, and declined by 0.1%, over the month. Price growth is slowing due to a decline in energy prices brought by…
Inflation in the Baltics has been two times faster than the EU average. There are many supply- and demand-side factors at play. Pandemic-related supply-side bottlenecks were exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, which cut trade ties with Russia that were…
Annual inflation decelerated slightly in September as electricity prices declined. In September, prices rose by 23.7%, over the year, and 0.3%, over the month. Around half of the annual change in prices came directly from higher energy prices, especially electricity…
The housing affordability index (HAI) slipped as abnormal price growth gained momentum. Falling affordability and purchasing power, as well as bleak expectations, are likely to curb demand and stifle price growth. The record-high housing affordability that we have seen over…
